Ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is continuing to rattle global energy markets, with a United States-enforced maritime blockade creating uncertainty around one of the world’s most critical oil corridors.
The narrow waterway – responsible for roughly 20% of global oil and gas flows – has seen intensified military patrols after diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran collapsed in Islamabad, raising fears of prolonged instability in the Gulf.
Shipping routes under pressure
Global shipping patterns are already shifting.
While some tankers continue to pass through the strait under strict monitoring, others have delayed voyages or diverted entirely amid rising security concerns.
Industry reports indicate that several major operators are actively exploring alternative routes – including longer journeys around the Cape of Good Hope – to avoid the high-risk zone.
Such diversions significantly increase transit times, fuel consumption and operational costs, placing additional strain on already stretched supply chains.
Insurance premiums for vessels operating in the region have also spiked sharply, reflecting the heightened geopolitical risk.
Analysts say these added costs are now being factored into global oil pricing.
Markets react to supply fears
Oil markets have responded with renewed volatility.
Brent crude prices briefly surged above $100 per barrel and, according to the latest trading data, have climbed back over that level as concerns over supply disruptions intensify.
Traders are balancing the risk of a prolonged blockade against the possibility of last-minute diplomatic breakthroughs, resulting in sharp price swings.
Energy analysts warn that limited spare capacity among OPEC+ members reduces the market’s ability to absorb shocks in the short term, leaving prices highly sensitive to developments in the region.
There are also growing concerns that any escalation could extend beyond shipping routes to critical oil infrastructure across the Gulf.
Iran has condemned the blockade as an act of piracy and signalled potential retaliation, further fuelling fears of a broader regional conflict.
Implications for South Africa
For South Africa, the impact could soon be felt at the pumps.
As a net importer of fuel, the country is highly exposed to global oil price movements and exchange rate volatility.
Rising crude prices – combined with increased shipping and insurance costs – are expected to drive up local fuel prices in the coming months.
Early indicators already point to widening under-recoveries in the fuel price cycle, suggesting that both petrol and diesel could see notable increases in upcoming adjustments.
Economists warn that the knock-on effects may extend beyond fuel, with higher transport costs likely to feed into food prices and broader inflation, placing additional pressure on households and businesses.
Fragile outlook
Despite ongoing diplomatic signals, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable.
Heightened military activity in and around the strait underscores the fragility of the current environment, with global markets closely tracking every development.
Even without a full shutdown, partial disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is proving enough to keep oil prices elevated – and for economies like South Africa, the economic ripple effects are likely to intensify if tensions persist.
Latest forecast
Below, the latest projections for May 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):
| FUEL | PRICE CHANGE |
| Petrol 93 | increase of 182 cents |
| Petrol 95 | increase of 214 cents |
| Diesel 0.05% | increase of 592 cents |
| Diesel 0.005% | increase of 593 cents |
| Illuminating Paraffin | increase of 499 cents |
If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 182 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 214 cents for 95 users is anticipated.
Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 592 and 593 cents per litre increase.
Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 499 cents in price.
FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:
1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices
2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products
Oil price
At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $106.39 a barrel.
Exchange rate
At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.60/$.
The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.
April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):
| INLAND | April |
| Petrol 93 | R23.25 |
| Petrol 95 | R23.36 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R25.90 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R26.11 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R24.21 |
| COASTAL | April |
| Petrol 93 | R22.46 |
| Petrol 95 | R22.53 |
| Diesel 0.05% | R25.07 |
| Diesel 0.005% | R25.35 |
| Illuminating Paraffin | R23.19 |
