Mining production rose in the first quarter by 0.6% compared with the fourth quarter. This will be positive for the first quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data. This is due on 9 June.
Compared with the first quarter 2025, mining production grew by 5.5% in the first quarter 2026. So there could be a positive surprise in the first quarter 2026 GDP data. In the fourth quarter 2025, total GDP increased by 0.8% year-on-year. Mining grew by 2.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter 2025.
Previously, in the fourth quarter 2025, GDP quarterly growth was 0.4%. That was despite a 0.6% decline in mining.
Statistics South Africa said there was an even split in the first quarter 2026. Six of the 12 sectors had gains and six had declines.
The largest positive contributors were: platinum group metals (PGMs) with an 8.5% jump; and gold, which rose by 8.2%.
Surprisingly, iron ore was the largest negative contributor with a 6.6% fall.
March detail
Mining production grew by 2.5% year-on-year in March. This followed three consecutive year-on-year increases.
Accordingly, the largest positive contributors were: gold (17.1%), manganese ore (14.4%) and PGMs (10.5%).
Consequently, the largest negative contributor was coal with a 9.6% decline.
Importance of mining
The Minerals Council South Africa in its Facts and Figures 2025 Pocketbook highlighted the importance of the mining industry for the South African economy. It employs 469 765 miners that generate R439.2 billion in revenue and provides the government with R31.0 billion in taxes.
The Minerals Council said that the competitiveness of the sector is constrained by rapidly increasing government administered prices such as electricity, rail and port charges.
Prospects
The council noted that the prospects for the mining industry depended on the continuing recovery in Transnet’s rail volumes, the stabilisation in electricity supply, and regulatory certainty.
Additionally, the Middle East conflict has highlighted the importance of mining in keeping economic growth going. This was confirmed by the South African mining production increase in the first quarter.
